Posted: October 12th, 2022

What would New Zealand tourism look like as an innovative tourism destination in 2040?

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Background:
Scenario planning is a both methodology (in Strategic Management) (Cummings, Bridgman, Hassan,
& Rowlinson, 2017) and a theory builder (in academic studies) (Öner, 2010; Torraco, 1997) used in
Future Studies. Problems associated with the future often include the characteristics of plurality,
complexity, disruption and uncertainty (Yeoman, 2023). From a business perspective, scenario planning
is often used to make sense of complex environments and provide a road map for the future (Wade,
2012, 2021). One approach to scenario planning is the use of visioning techniques to create a positive
future of where a business or organisation wants to go. In tourism, this is what Yeoman and McMahonBeattie (2014) did when devising a strategy for New Zealand tourism set in 2050. Whereas, Anniken,
Kåre, and Endre (2015) used scenarios to envision the future of Norwayien tourism, which emphasises
innovation.
The Idea:
The Tourism Management Group at Victoria University has run a series of successful webinars on
tourism-related themes since 2020. Each webinar is one hour, with a series of expert presentations
followed by a discussion. Students from Wellington School of Business and Government, studying
MGMT 410 The Future of Business will organise a webinar in which they will present a series of
scenarios about the future of tourism using innovation as a driver of change
The assignment consists of two components, Part I is the participation in a webinar (and maybe in
person) about the creation of a set of scenarios about New Zealand as an innovative tourism destination
set in 2040. These scenarios would be tested against a panel of experts and stakeholders from the
tourism industry. Part II involves reflecting on the webinar and experts’ feedback, and writing a short
reflection discussing the implications of the scenarios for New Zealand tourism.
Critical Reflection:
Having completed Part I, the webinar on the 6th of October, the next stage is to write an individual
critical reflection based on your own thoughts, the presentation, webinar discussion, and feedback.
• The critical question is: What would New Zealand tourism look like as an innovative tourism
destination in 2040?
Some important words include ‘what would’ and ‘look like’ as these are
future-orientated words.
You want to consider the present situation of New Zealand from an
innovative perspective.
How does New Zealand compare to the rest of the world?
What were
the issues each scenario raised?
Were there a series of common or contrasting themes?
What
were the weak signals that would direct the future?
How would the demography landscape of
2040 shape innovative experiences and products? Do you have any recommendations?
Structure:
Follow the author guidelines as if the paper was to be published in the Journal of Tourism
Futures. See https://www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/journal/jtf#author-guidelines
Be no longer than 1,000 words excluding references, tables and diagrams.
Your critical reflection should be guided by the following structure
Structured abstract (https://www.emeraldgrouppublishing.com/how-to/authoringediting-reviewing/write-article-abstract)
o Introduction (including linking to webinar and scenario set)
Discussion focused on critical questions
Conclusion
References
Students are encouraged to use quotations from the literature, webinar and interviews to support
your argumentation

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