Posted: October 13th, 2022

However, we also know that god is in ultimate control of our lives.

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DB#1 Katherine Carmon
BUSI 405- School of Business
Professor Baugus
October 8, 2022 In chapter 9, we look at the four data mining techniques used: k-Nearest-Neighbor (kNN), classification trees, Naïve Bayes, and logit. The kNN technique is shown in graphic form, which is easier to understand. (Keating, 2019, p. 434) Classification tree “As the name implies, it is, like k-Nearest-Neighbor, a way of dividing up a large number of records into successively smaller sets in which the members become similar to one another.” (Keating, 2022, p. 445) Naïve Bayes uses statistical classifiers. “This technique will also predict the probability that an instance is a member of a certain class.” (Keating, 2022, p. 454) Logit- “What logit does is to transform the concept of an ordinary linear regression into an equation able to predict the probabilities of the possible outcomes, not just the numeric value of the target variable itself.” (Keating, 2022, p. 464)
In chapter 12, I learned that communication is vital in any forecasting situation. The analysts need to communicate with the people who need the information. “Each of these groups may have quite different perspective on the forecasting process and the desired results. Collaboration among interested parties is essential for the forecasting process to truly meet an organization’s needs.” (Keating, 2022, p. 535) “To maximize the benefits to be derived from the forecast process or analytics effort, communication, cooperation, and collaboration should involve the entire supply chain.” (Keating, p. 535) “Companies that forecast most effectively consider it critical to obtain input from people in different functional areas, each of whom contributes relevant information and insights that can improve overall accuracy.” (Moon et al., 1998) At first, I was not going to use this report because of the year it was written. But twenty-four years ago, the report was written made me think about how forecasting was done and when it started. This is what I found, “The foundations of modern forecasting were laid in 1865 by William Stanley Jevons, who argued that manufacturing had replaced agriculture as the dominant sector in English society.” (Forecasting in Business, 2022) No matter how long a technique has been in use, there is always a foundational theory that lasts through time. In the case of forecasting, regardless of which method or process it takes to get the information you seek, communication is vital.
“Communication is more than just our ability to talk, but also to listen. As we communicate with God, the first part of that communication is listening. God’s primary ways of communication with us are through His Word (Romans 10:17) and by the Holy Spirit (John 14:26).” (Got Questions, 2022)
References
“Forecasting in Business.” Encyclopedia of Business and Finance, 2nd ed. Retrieved October 6, 2022, from Encyclopedia.com: https://www.encyclopedia.com/finance/finance-and-accounting-magazines/forecasting-business Got Questions. (2022, January 4). What does the Bible say about communication? Retrieved from Got Questions: https://www.gotquestions.org/Bible-communication.html
Keating, B., & Wilson, H. J. (2019). Forecasting and Predictive Analytics (7th ed.). New York: McGraw Hill.
Moon, M., Mentzer, J., Smith, C., & Garver, M. (1998). Seven Keys to Better Forecasting. Business Horizons. DB#2 Madison Gumto
School of Business, Liberty University
BUSI 405: Business and Economic Forecasting (B01)
Professor Baugus
September 13, 2022 Classification Models
This final week of material in Business and Economic Forecasting, we covered two in-depth chapters. Chapter 9 discussed Classification Models while Chapter 12 covered Forecast and Analytics Implementation. Classification is defined as “a form of supervised learning in which we wish to predict the class (classification) of each record in our data” (Keating & Wilson, 2018, p. 133) . Keating and Wilson discussed classification algorithms and mentioned that they “are the most used techniques in predictive analysis” (Keating & Wilson, 2018, p. 133). Even though classification is only part of the broad topic of data mining, it has been proven to be extremely beneficial and helpful in terms of the forecasting environment. Classification trees are useful in data mining. Chen et al. note that “when performing classification, a decision tree algorithm starts at the root node, tests the attribute, and then moves down the tree branch corresponding to the value of the attribute” (Chen et al., 2018, para. 16). Furthermore, classification tree “analysis is a “decision-tree”–like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability” (Linden & Yarnold, 2017, para. 1). What different uses do classification trees conduct? When is it most beneficial to utilize classification trees?
Throughout this course we have had ample time to conduct inner reflection on God’s feelings towards human’s forecasting efforts. I believe that this topic has two distinct topics. First, God wants His children to utilize the tools, talents, and resources He provided them with. Many verses in the Bible demonstrate this thinking. 1 Peter tells us, “ Each of you should use whatever gift you have received to serve others, as faithful stewards of God’s grace in its various forms” (New International Version, 1 Peter 4:10). Therefore, as Christians we know that we are instructed to use our knowledge of forecasting and the models and resources we have acquired in hopes of predicting future trends and events. However, we also know that God is in ultimate control of our lives. We truly have no idea what tomorrow will bring, but our Father knows what the rest of eternity looks like. Although we can try to forecast all we want, we can find comfort in knowing that God is in ultimate control of His children. Even though this concept is quite terrifying at times knowing that we have no control of what comes next, we can find comfort in knowing who is in control. Christians are told “keep your lives free from the love of money and be content with what you have, because God has said,“Never will I leave you; never will I forsake you” (New International Version, Hebrews 13:5). We don’t have control over our future, but we can find comfort in knowing that everything is in our Heavenly Father’s hands. References
Chen, W., Zhang, S., Li, R., & Shahabi, H. (2018). Performance evaluation of the GIS-based data mining techniques of best-first decision tree, random forest, and naïve Bayes tree for landslide susceptibility modeling. Science of The Total Environment, 644,
1006–1018. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.389Links to an external site.. Hodder & Stoughton Ltd. (2007). NIV Bible. Keating, B. & Wilson, J.H., (2018). Forecasting and Predictive Analytics with ForecastX (7th ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill. ISBN: 9781259903915.
Linden, A., & Yarnold, P. R. (2017). Modeling time‐to‐event (survival) data using classification tree analysis. Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice, 23(6), 1299–1308. https://doi.org/10.1111/jep.12779Links to an external site.. Each reply must incorporate at least 2 scholarly citations other than the textbook and at least 1 biblical integration in APA format. Any sources cited must have been published within the last five years. Acceptable sources include the textbook, the Bible, etc. 200 words each

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