Posted: May 17th, 2022

U.S. Gasoline Consumption For any country, the general economy and most economic factors are dependent on the national energy consumption level.

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-‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‌‍‍ just ONE Word or PDF Document should be submitted ( Do not submit Excel or Image files. At any point, if you need to take screenshots from your computer, please ensure to provide legible high-resolution images) – Pay attention to the due date (no submission is accepted after due time), – Formatting and appearance will be a significant part of the project evaluation. I expect standard managerial reports’ formatting (appropriate font type and size, margins, headers and footers, page numbers, cover page, executive summary, etc.). It should not be more than five pages in total. ———————————- There are two cases for your report as follows: 1- U.S. Gasoline Consumption For any country, the general economy and most economic factors are dependent on the national energy consumption level. Along this line and in order to plan for many large-scale political and economic processes, the U.S. government needs to have a good estimation of future gasoline consumption. 1. From online resources, find the U.S. historical nationwide gasoline consumption per year for 10-20 past years. 2. Suggest a time-series model predict the overall consumption for the next year. 3. Find data for another independent variable(s) that can be assumed as an explanatory factor for gasoline consumption. Make a causal forecast for the next year. 4. Which model would you prefer? Time series or causal model? Why? ——————————————— 2- Vintage Restaurant The Vintage Restaurant is owned and ‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‌‍‍operated by Karen Payne just completed its third year of operation. During those three years, Karen sought to establish a reputation for the restaurant as a high-quality dining establishment that specializes in fresh seafood. Through the efforts of Karen and her staff, her restaurant has become one of the best and fastest-growing restaurants on the island. To better plan for the future growth of the restaurant, Karen needs to develop a system that will enable her to forecast food and beverage sales by month for up to one year in advance. Refer to data file VINTAGE from CH8 for the value of food and beverage sales ($1,000s) for the first three years of operation. Perform an analysis of the sales data for the Vintage Restaurant. Prepare a report for Karen that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following: 1. A time series plot. Comment on the underlying pattern in the time series. 2. Using the dummy variable approach, forecast sales for January through December of the fourth year. How would you explain this model to Karen? 3. Assume that January sales for the fourth year turn out to be $285,000. What was your forecast error? If this error is large, Karen may be puzzled about the difference between your forecast and the actual sales value. What can you do to resolve her uncertainty about the forecasting procedure? 4. Can you think of other ways to improve your forecasting model for the future? Thinking of causal effects, is there any independent variable that can be added to the mod‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‌‌‍‍‍‌‍‍‍‍‌‍‍el?

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